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01:29 p.m. EDT, June 02, 2008
According to a story for CNNMoney by David Goldman, hurricane season 2008, which started June 1, is expected to be unusually active and could threaten the operation of pipelines in the Southern United States, driving the price of gasoline even higher.
Three years ago in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita this same effect was seen. Current gas prices are 20% higher than the same period in 2007 and according to Don Luke, an MF Global energy analyst quoted in the article, "With the market the way it is now, a move in crude because of a hurricane could really be exacerbated."
A second quoted oil analyst, Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover Beutel, predicted a hurricane with an effect similar to that of Katrina would send prices at the pump to $5 per gallon, potentially as high as $6.
The effect of hurricane season is not simply limited to the physical damage to drilling platforms and refineries which disrupts supply and demand. In anticipation of such potential disruption during hurricane season, nervous traders in futures have already sent prices higher. This season trading phenomenon has been evident since the Katrina disaster.
In the wake of Katrina, gas prices jumped 17% adding about 46 cents per gallon in a single week making the national average approximately $3.11. With the current national average hovering around $3.85, a similar effect would push the level well past $4. Hurricane season does not end until November 30, meaning its effects on prices at the pump could linger into December.




